Quantifying the potential impact of energy efficiency and low carbon policies for China

Panel: 1. Foundations of future energy policy

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Nan Zhou, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
David Fridley, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Michael McNeil, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Nina Zheng Khanna, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Wei Feng, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
Jing Ke, Ernest Orlando Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

Abstract

In 2006, China set for the first time a binding target for energy efficiency by requiring a 20% reduction in energy intensity per unit of GDP from 2005 to 2010 and began initiating sector-specific policies and measures to support further reductions in energy and CO2 intensity through 2020. While data on achievements of key industrial energy-saving programs is available, there is limited information on the impact of many other policies and programs and no consistent methodology for defining baselines and calculating official savings, making policy prioritization and evaluation difficult for policymakers. To provide more insight into how recent policies and programs can contribute to China’s goals, a consistent methodology to quantitatively evaluate the potential energy savings and CO2 emissions reduction of China’s key energy efficiency and low carbon policies in the residential and commercial buildings, industry and transport sectors was developed.

This paper evaluates building policies that include: more stringent building codes, building energy labeling programs, district heating, metering and controls, and retrofits; industry policies that include efficiency improvements for 7 energy-intensive industries, technology switching for cement, iron and steel and aluminum industries, and use of alternative fuels for cement industry; and transport policies that include fuel economy standards, hybrid and electric vehicles, bus rapid transit and car-trip diversion strategies. LBNL developed a China Energy End Use Bottom-up Model to evaluate many of these policies. For each sector, the key assumptions and underlying methodology for formulating the baseline and policy scenarios is discussed along with recent policy developments and future outlook. The quantitative potential energy and CO2 emissions reduction results for each policy was compared both within and across sectors to shed light on each policy’s relative contributions to achieving China’s energy and CO2 goals.