The German load curve in 2050: structural changes through energy efficiency measures and their impacts on the electricity supply side

Panel: 5A. Cutting the energy use of buildings: Projects and technologies

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Tobias Bossmann, INCOMPLETE ADDRESS, Germany
Rainer Elsland, Fraunhofer ISI, Germany
Fridolin Lickert, Fraunhofer ISI, Germany
Wietschel Martin, Fraunhofer ISI

Abstract

The shape of the electricity load curve has crucial impacts on the design of the future electricity supply system with regard to capacity dispatch, need for storage and grid investments or demand side management measures. Assessing historic load curves shows that their shape changes over time, e.g. volatility is continuously decreasing. Reasons for load curve deformation result from changes in technology/application specific electricity demand or from modifications in the respective electricity consumption pattern. When estimating the future load curve it is crucial to take into account such deforming effects. Hence, we develop a partial decomposition approach that generates national hourly load curves based on the annual electricity demand projection of a bottom-up simulation model. Applications featuring the most significant change in demand over time are modelled in a separate manner by means of technology specific load profiles. In the framework of a case study, we first analyse the deformation of the load curve when applying the partial decomposition approach. Compared to this calculation, the most common approach of load curve estimation - the simple scaling of a historic load curve - underestimates volatility and load in evening hours but overestimates load in morning hours. Secondly, we assess the impacts of an introduction of energy saving options on the load curve. We observe a further increase of load volatility as well as a dislocation of load into evening and night hours. Using the load curves in an electricity market model shows that the load dislocation entails an increased number of hours with negative residual load as well as an increasing amount of curtailed renewable electricity. Hence, demand side related energy saving options complicate the integration of renewable electricity sources, increasing the urgent need for integration strategies through demand side management, grid extension or additional storage capacities.