On the prospects of increasing energy efficiency in car transport by promoting electric and hydrogen vehicles

Panel: 4. Mobility, transport, and smart and sustainable cities

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Reinhard Haas, Vienna University of Technology - Institute for Power Systems and Energy Economics, Energy Economics Group (EEG), Austria
Amela Ajanovic, TU Wien, Austria

Abstract

Road transport is still the end use sector with highest increasing emissions and lowest energy efficiency. Alternative powertrains like electric motors and fuel cells based on electricity and hydrogen from renewable energy sources (RES) are considered as important means to cope with these problems. The core objective of this paper is to investigate the prospects of increasing energy efficiency in car transport by promoting electricity and hydrogen in a dynamic framework till 2050 in EU-Countries. Our method of approach is based on life-cycle-analyses, dynamic technical and economic assessments (incl. technological learning) and price as well as policy scenarios e.g. for taxes. The results are:

(i) The most efficient solutions are battery electric vehicles (BEV) and fuel cell vehicles (FCV) yet only if RES as wind, hydro or PV are used;

(ii) energetic losses in the Well-to-Wheel chain for providing mobility will be reduced by 30% to 50% up to 2050 for all technologies;

(iii) Despite the efficiency gap to conventional cars will become smaller – because higher technical improvement potentials for especially hybrid electric vehicles (HEV) exist – also in the long run BEV and FCV will remain the most efficient options;

(iv) the major uncertainty is how fast the costs can be reduced due to Technological Learning especially for batteries and fuel cells;

(v) HEV are currently the most efficient and most effective fossil fuel based cars; Yet they are not considered as Zero-emission cars proper for driving in cities;

(vi) Finally, CO2 costs (e.g. taxation ) will play a crucial role for the final future fuel mix. E.g. Oslo in Norway is a city with one of the highest penetrations of BEVs in the world. One major reason is that – among other incentives – the driving costs of conventional cars are high compared to rather cheap electricity costs for BEV drivers.

The final conclusion is that the most efficient types of vehicles will in future only play a significant role if the proper mix of CO2-taxes, intensified R&D, and corresponding riding down the Learning Curve (e.g. batteries for EVs and fuel cells) as well as non-monetary incentives are implemented timely.