Worldwide resource efficient steel production

Panel: 2. Sustainable production design and supply chain initiatives

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Maria Xylia, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden
Semida Silveira, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, Sweden
Jan Duerinck, VITO – Flemish Institute for Technological Research, Belgium
Frank Meinke-Hubeny, VITO – Flemish Institute for Technological Research, Belgium

Abstract

Steel production processes are energy and emission intensive, but there are variations due to different choices of production routes, product mixes and processes. This study analyses future steel production globally, with focus on the rising availability of steel scrap, and implications for steel production capacity planning. We evaluate the development of steel demand, using the Steel Optimization Model, which provides a region-detailed representation of technologies, energy and material flows and trade activities. We link it to the Scrap Availability Assessment Model, which estimates the theoretical steel scrap availability. The modelling horizon stretches until 2100, with 2050 serving as a benchmark for the analysis. The scenarios require a range of inputs to estimate regional pathways for steel demand including demographic development and economic growth, and these affect scrap availability. The results show that aggregated crude steel production will evolve into an almost balanced split between the primary production route using iron ore and secondary production from steel scrap by 2050 and the share of EAF will exceed by 2060 the production in BOF globally. The results also show a global increase in scrap use from 611 Mtonnes in 2015 to 1.5 Gtonnes in 2050, with highest growth being for post-consumer scrap. In 2050, almost 50% of post-consumer scrap is expected to be traded, with the main exporter being China and major importing regions being Africa, India and other developing Asian countries. Surprisingly, the increase in scrap use does not depend much on the introduction of a global carbon price until 2050. The results are important for producers contemplating new investments, since regional availability, quality and trade patterns of scrap will influence production route choices, possibly in favor of secondary routes. Also policy instruments such as carbon taxation may affect investment choices, and favor more energy efficient and less carbon-intensive emerging technologies.