Challenges to achieving low carbon domestic retrofit and its effect on UK employment

Panel: 1. Foundations of future energy policy

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Malcolm Morgan, School of Earth and Environment, The University of Leeds, United Kingdom
Gavin Killip, Environmental Change Institute
Oxford University Centre for the Environment, United Kingdom

Abstract

In order for the United Kingdom to meet its overall climate change targets a reduction in domestic carbon emissions of at least 80% by 2050 is required. The achievement of this goal necessitates a significant retrofit of the oldest housing stock in Europe. Completing this task will, therefore, present significant technical and economic challenges as well as economic opportunities. These opportunities include but are not limited to, supply chain growth, technological innovation and job creation needed for the performance of the retrofit.

Using emerging findings from modelling of the UKs housing stock and economy, this paper explores the major employment issues around achieving a deep retrofit the UK housing stock by 2050, the likely broader economic impacts, and the policy requirements of performing large scale retrofit. Firstly, whether the industry has the capacity to perform the retrofitting and train the necessary workers. Secondly, the differing technical and skill requirements for retrofit to existing building standards and the deeper retrofits required to meet 2050 standards. Finally, the paper explores the related employment effects of an implied decline in fossil fuel consumption and an increase in decentralised labour intensive microgeneration within the wider UK energy sector.

Current research in other European countries has suggested that the net result of these conflicting trends will be a small net increase in jobs as the labour intensive sectors of construction and decentralised low carbon energy grow at the expense of a decline of jobs in the less labour intensive fossil fuel industries. However, UK has a number of characteristics, which may cause divergence from other European countries, such as: the age of the housing stock, predominance of single family dwellings, an energy system highly dependent on fossil fuels, a largely untapped potential for marine and wind energy generation, and seasonal, temperate climate.