Estimation tool for national effects of MEPS and labelling – version 2.0

Panel: 8. Monitoring and evaluation: building confidence and enhancing practices

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Linn Stengård, Swedish Energy Agency, Sweden
Troels Fjordbak Larsen, Big2great, Denmark
Peter Bennich, Swedish Energy Agency, Sweden
Signe Friis Christensen, Danish Energy Agency, Denmark
Kasper Schäfer Mogensen, Big2Great ApS, Denmark

Abstract

Within EU-28 appliance energy efficiency is addressed through end-use specific energy labelling and eco-design requirements. The assumed energy savings of these measures are assessed at EU level but seldom at National level. A simple, yet flexible tool for evaluation of eco-design and labelling measures at national level has been developed and used for Sweden and Denmark.

The tool uses nation specific historical sales figures and/or stock data, distributions of sales by energy efficiency classes and assumptions about technology lifespan and natural sales development. The results are an ex-ante estimation of the future sales distribution by technologies/energy classes and hence the energy consumption of the future stock of appliances. A comparison with a baseline/assumed natural development provides estimates of the energy savings.

At IEPEC (2012) results for two specific end uses, TV sets and lighting, were presented as well as the detailed estimation principles and assumptions. Since then some five more years of data and experience have been collected, providing the basis for comparisons between ex-ante estimates and the actual development. There are also results for other end uses e.g. white goods.

This paper aims at:

– describing the basics of the evaluation tool

– presenting energy saving estimates for several product groups for Sweden and Denmark

– comparing the earlier ex-ante savings estimates with the actual development and analysing the differences

– discussing the baseline

– giving an introduction to version 3.0 using web-crawler data

For the national energy agencies in Denmark and Sweden, it is very valuable to be able to estimate the national effect of the eco-design requirements and labelling schemes. For example, the national estimations can be used in energy consumption forecasts and policy evaluations. Furthermore, the ex-post analysis can directly pinpoint successful product areas as well as areas where the market development needs stimulus.