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Peak CO2? China’s emissions trajectories to 2050

Panel: 2. Current energy efficiency policies: On stage and backstage

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Nan Zhou, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
David Fridley, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Michael McNeil, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Nina Zheng, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Jing Ke, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA
Mark Levine, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, USA

Abstract

China’s 11th Five Year Plan (FYP) set a goal of reducing energy use per unit of GDP by 20% between 2006 and 2010. In Nov. 2009, China also committed to reduce its carbon intensity by 40% to 45% percent below 2005 levels by 2020.

Achieving the goals requires strengthening and expansion of energy efficiency policies as well as further expansion of renewable and nuclear power capacity initiated. This research focuses on a China Energy and Emission Outlook through 2050 with 2020 milestones that assesses the cross-sectoral roles of energy-efficiency, power sector decarbonization, and structural change in industry for transitioning China’s economy to a lower-GHG trajectory in the longer term.

Over the past seven years, LBNL has established and significantly enhanced the China End-Use Energy Model based on the diffusion of end use technologies, and other physical drivers of energy demand. This model presents an important new approach for helping understand China’s complex and dynamic drivers of energy consumption and the implications of energy efficiency policies through scenario analysis. A baseline and an alternative scenario have been developed to assess the impact of actions already taken by the Chinese government as well as planned and expected actions. A CCS Scenario has also been built to evaluate the potential impact of further decarbonaization of power sector.

It is a common belief that China’s CO2 emissions will continue to grow throughout this century and will dominate the world’s emissions. This research finds that this is not likely to happen because appliances, building floor area, roadways, railways, fertilizer use, among others will saturate in the 2030 time frame; this in turn will lead to shifts away from heavy industrial-based growth. Urbanization and population will approach a peak after 2030 or 2035, while exports of energy-intensive industry will decline. The findings have profound implications for policy in China.

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