Scenario based evaluation of policies addressing the German heating and cooling sector: A bottom-up modeling approach integrating buildings, industry and district heating

Panel: 7. Monitoring and evaluation

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Jan Steinbach, IREES, Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies, Germany
Lukas Kranzl, Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology, Austria
Andreas Müller, Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology, Austria
Marcus Hummel, Energy Economics Group, Vienna University of Technology, Austria
Judit Kockat, Fraunhofer Institute for Systems and Innovation Research ISI, Germany
Felipe Toro, Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies (IREES), Germany
Felix Reitze, Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies (IREES), Germany
Andrea Herbst, Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies (IREES), Germany
Eberhard Jochem, Institute for Resource Efficiency and Energy Strategies (IREES), Germany
Max Fette, Bremer Energie Institut, Germany
Wolfgang Schulz, Bremer Energie Institut, Germany
Veit Bürger, Öko-Institut e.V. Institute for Applied Ecology, Germany

Abstract

Energy demand for heating and cooling represents the largest energy use sector in Germany. Measures to enhance energy efficiency of buildings and industry processes are often considered as a cost-effective opportunity to reduce energy demand and carbon dioxide emissions. Nevertheless, realized improvements in energy efficiency have failed to live up to expectations in the past few years considering its attributed potential; raising the question if the targets regarding energy efficiency and renewable heating and cooling set by the German government are still feasible. This paper presents a variety of scenarios for the German heating and cooling sector up to 2020 using an exploratory modeling approach. Each scenario considers a certain set of different policy instruments which are analyzed by integrating four different techno-economic bottom-up sector models – INVERT/EE-Lab, Forecast-ProcIndustry, ProcServ and District heating/CHP model. The latter considers different building and settlement types to calculate the potential of district heating and CHP technologies subject to energy load of industry processes and buildings. The dynamic simulation model INVERT/EE-Lab is applied to simulate investment decisions in energy efficiency measures and evaluate different support schemes in the building sector. Forecast-ProcIndustry and ProcServ describes the energy demand of process heating and cooling in industry and the service sector, respectively.

The study assesses a wide range of different energy efficiency policies. The results are evaluated with respect to reduction of energy demand, carbon dioxide emissions and renewable energy share as well as overall public and social cost. The results suggest that current policy measures in Germany are not sufficient to reach the national 2020 targets. However, scenarios with a combination of financial support instruments, stricter regulations and measures addressing stakeholder specific barriers are able to reach targets.