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Ex-ante estimation of the EU Ecodesign Directive's impact on the long-term electricity demand of the tertiary sector

Panel: 7. Monitoring and evaluation

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
Martin Jakob, TEP Energy GmbH, Switzerland
Tobias Fleiter, Fraunhofer ISI, Germany
Giacomo Catenazzi, TEP Energy, Switzerland

Abstract

Ex-ante evaluation is important to effectively design policy measures. The paper addresses the electricity demand of the tertiary sector in Europe which is one of most strongly growing. Different scenarios which are characterized by different levels of policy measures and programmes are analysed by using hybrid techno-economic bottom-up model. It differentiates between 29 countries, 8 sub-sectors and 15 building and user related energy-services such as lighting in buildings, street lighting, electric heating, ventilation and cooling, refrigeration, cooking, laundry, ICT devices and data centres with servers. Electricity demand is obtained through physical drivers and specific energy consumption indicators. The latter consist of technical information such as installed power, energy demand per unit of driver, and utilisation rates such as full load hours. Energy-efficiency measures aim at reducing both installed power and utilization rates and cover technologies and practices. Substitution technologies such as heat pumps, organisational and operational measures such as control systems (e.g. occupancy and daylight controls), as well as facility management and building energy management systems are considered. Referring to the EuP and the EPBD-recast the impact of a bundle of different policy measures is estimated by a comparative analysis of different scenarios. As the model also considers growing drivers enabling drawing a comprehensive picture of the net demand development. Mostly growing factors are the number of employees or floor area, specific energy service drivers such as equipment or diffusion rates (e.g. share of cooled floor area, no. of computers per employee).

Results show an increase of the electricity demand of the tertiary sector by 20 to 30 percent up to 2035 in the reference scenario. Demand increase is attenuated or even completely compensated in the case of other scenarios, depending on the amount and the intensity of underlined policy measures.

ERRATA

The abstract has been updated from the printed version, as well as Figures 5 & 6 and numbers in the text referring to these figures.

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