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Industry – more than just processes: a combined stock-model approach to quantify the energy saving potential for space heating in European industry

Panel: 4. Undertaking high impact actions: The role of technology and systems optimisation

This is a peer-reviewed paper.

Authors:
David Biere
Tobias Fleiter, Fraunhofer Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI, Germany
Simon Hirzel, Fraunhofer Institut für System- und Innovationsforschung ISI, Germany
Benjamin Sontag, TEP Energy GmbH
Technology Economics Policy – Research and Advice, Switzerland

Abstract

Space heating accounts for around 10% of the industrial final energy demand in Europe. This is equal to about 450 TWh in 2010, thus exceeding the energy demand of energy intensive sectors such as the European pulp and paper industry. Studies for the residential sector have shown that improved building standards as well as new and more efficient heating technologies can significantly reduce energy demand of buildings. Despite the high relevance of industrial space heating, hardly any study has ever analyzed the energy saving potential.

Therefore, we present a holistic approach to model the development of energy demand for space heating for all European countries until 2035. This approach is based on a combined building and heating stock model. One of the main challenges for this approach is scarce empirical and statistical data. Our methodology takes this challenge into account by using distribution functions as input parameters where necessary. Thus, our approach allows overcoming gaps in input data and benefits from the advantages of a stock model at the same time. Furthermore, the stock model allows to identify major drivers for energy demand and to model a “realistic” diffusion of new technologies resulting from the replacement of heating systems/buildings. The adoption of new technologies is modeled by a logit-approach to reflect investment decision based on total-costs-of-ownership and to take market heterogeneity into account. Additionally the approach considers the shares of retired heating systems to reflect path-dependency.

We apply this model to a set of scenarios where we analyze varying policy interventions on industrial buildings. First results show that long-term energy saving potentials from space heating are relatively high as compared to saving potentials in sectors like the iron and steel or pulp and paper industry. The results, thus, clearly justify the need for further analysis of this very important but currently completely neglected end-use.

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